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Will the cherry blossom be out in Nara?

Forecasts appear a few weeks before the season and change constantly. If you are booking months ahead, what you actually want is the record: how often the blossom in Nara peaked during the dates you are considering.

16 years of observations, 2011–2026. Recorded by the Nara Local Meteorological Office to the national standard, on one designated sample tree. Checked 3 September 2026. Past seasons do not change; only the newest year is ever added.

Your travel dates

The year does not matter — we compare your window against every recorded season.

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Year by year

peak during your visit open, before peak too early past peak

What the record shows

YearFirst floweringFull bloomDays between
2011 March 31 April 8 8
2012 April 3 April 9 6
2013 March 22 March 29 7
2014 March 27 April 1 5
2015 March 27 March 31 4
2016 March 23 April 2 10
2017 April 3 April 8 5
2018 March 24 March 29 5
2019 March 29 April 5 7
2020 March 26 April 3 8
2021 March 21 March 30 9
2022 March 25 March 31 6
2023 March 20 March 27 7
2024 March 31 April 8 8
2025 March 28 April 4 7
2026 March 24 March 31 7
Average March 28 April 4 7

Also available as JSON and CSV.

Across these 16 seasons, full bloom came as early as March 27 (2023) and as late as April 9 (2012) — a spread of 13 days. First flowering ranged from March 20 to April 3. That spread is the reason a single "best week" recommendation is worth so little: the same calendar week is a hit some years and a miss in others.

Worked answers

Will the cherry blossom be out in Nara in late March?

In 7 of the last 16 years the blossom in Nara reached full bloom between March 24 and March 31, and in 14 of 16 years there were open blossoms at some point in that window. It was too early in 2 years and already past peak in 0.

Will the cherry blossom be out in Nara in the first week of April?

In 5 of the last 16 years the blossom in Nara reached full bloom between April 1 and April 7, and in 9 of 16 years there were open blossoms at some point in that window. It was too early in 0 years and already past peak in 7.

When is the safest week to see cherry blossom in Nara?

In 10 of the last 16 years the blossom in Nara reached full bloom between March 28 and April 4, and in 15 of 16 years there were open blossoms at some point in that window. It was too early in 0 years and already past peak in 1.

Is mid March too early for cherry blossom in Nara?

In 0 of the last 16 years the blossom in Nara reached full bloom between March 14 and March 21, and in 2 of 16 years there were open blossoms at some point in that window. It was too early in 14 years and already past peak in 0.

Mount Yoshino is a different question

Mount Yoshino in full bloom, cherry trees covering the hillside around the roofs of Kinpusen-ji.
Mount Yoshino at full bloom, with Kinpusen-ji among the trees. The hillside opens in bands, from the foot upwards. Photograph by Ibamoto, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0. Not our photograph.

Mount Yoshino is a mountainside, not a city park, and it does not bloom all at once. Its groves are counted in four bands from the foot of the hill upwards, and they open in that order, later than the city below. We have not yet confirmed a year-by-year record for each band, so we do not publish day offsets we cannot source.

OrderGroveWhere it is
1 Shimo Senbon 下千本 Lowest, around the ropeway and Kinpusen-ji approach
2 Naka Senbon 中千本 The main village and the classic viewpoints
3 Kami Senbon 上千本 The steep slope above the village
4 Oku Senbon 奥千本 The highest and last to open, near Kinpu Shrine
Not yet published. We are gathering a year-by-year record for each of Yoshino's four bands. Until we have one we can source, we will not put a number on how many days behind the city they run.

How this is worked out

Each recorded season is compared against your window using only the two observed dates. A year counts as peak during your visit when the full bloom date falls inside the window; as open, before peak when the trees had flowered by the time you left but had not yet peaked when you arrived. We do not estimate how long the petals lasted afterwards, because that is not observed to a national standard, so a year past peak is simply marked as such.

Source: Japan Meteorological Agency, cherry blossom observations. Species observed: Somei-yoshino (Prunus × yedoensis). Observed by the Japan Meteorological Agency on one designated sample tree in Nara city, to a national standard. These are the city's dates, not Mount Yoshino's — see the Yoshino section.